According to scientists at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of
Atmospheric Physics (IAP), a powerful El Niño event in 2023–2024 will
devastate the world's surface temperature and spark many climate
disasters.
The El Niño event, which is renowned for generating enormous amounts of
heat in the atmosphere, has the potential to alter atmospheric circulation
patterns, impact subtropical jets, monsoons, and even polar vortices.
Ultimately, it could lead to a sharp increase in the global mean surface
temperature (GMST).
On September 15, the work was published in
The Innovation Geoscience.
Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) is a crucial measure of climatic
variability and global warming, as it combines data from both land and sea
surface temperatures. ENSO events are the main cause of its interannual
variability; El Niño events have the most impact since they may release a
great deal of heat into the atmosphere, which can cause anomalies in
atmospheric circulation and modifications to the surface energy
balance.
According to the IAP's ensemble prediction algorithm, an El Niño event is
expected to occur in the boreal fall of 2023 and might last into the
winter.
Drawing from past research and historical climate data, the IAP team
delineated the possible scope and ramifications of the high warming
anticipated in 2023–2024. According to their research, there is a 17% chance
that the GMST in 2023 will be the highest since 1950, and an astounding 61%
chance that it will be in the top three. These odds abruptly increase to 56%
and 79%, respectively, in 2024.
Warm anomalies are predicted to mostly impact Alaska, the Eurasian
continent, and the tropical central-eastern Pacific during the emergence of
a severe El Niño in 2023. But by 2024, warm anomalies are expected to cover
the whole continent, greatly raising the likelihood of heat waves, droughts,
and wildfires on land.
Prof. Zheng Fei, the study's corresponding author, states that "a cascade
of climate crises is predicted to be triggered by the strong El Niño in
2023-2024, in addition to the surge in surface temperatures." Sea level
rise, agricultural yield decrease, deoxygenation of the ocean, loss of
oceanic variety, harm to marine ecosystems, and amplification of marine heat
waves are a few of these.
Moreover, China could experience several climate abnormalities at this
time. For example, in 2023, the reduced winter monsoon may raise winter
temperatures in most of China and raise the likelihood of air pollution. In
2024, there's a chance of a spring drought in northern China, while the
southern parts will probably have to deal with summer flooding and excessive
rains.
Provided by
Chinese Academy of Sciences
